Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:00
Prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin
Team pages: Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Ilia Simakin
Prediction summary
Winner
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ilia Simakin
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1-9 (W-L)
Ilia Simakin
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1434 · Ilia Simakin 1684
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 81% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilia Simakin (rating 1434 vs 1684).
- Ilia Simakin is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Note: Camilo Ugo Carabelli makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 2-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-13.7 | 14-8.9 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 76% |
| Break % | 33% | 65% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Ilia Simakin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Rigele Te ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/09 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 76% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.