Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 07/10, 09:00
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Yi Zhou
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Yi Zhou
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
7-3 (W-L)
Yi Zhou
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1601 · Yi Zhou 1448
| Mattia Bellucci | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1601 vs 1448).
- Mattia Bellucci is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.5 | 11.1-12.5 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77.6% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 35% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.7
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 45% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Elias Ymer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 2-18 | L |
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Jie Cui Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Michael Geerts Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou?
Our model gives 71% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.