Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 07/10, 09:30
Prediction: Rinky Hijikata vs Roman Safiullin
Team pages: Rinky Hijikata · Roman Safiullin
Prediction summary
Winner
Rinky Hijikata
Roman Safiullin
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rinky Hijikata
4-6 (W-L)
Roman Safiullin
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rinky Hijikata 1495 · Roman Safiullin 1540
| Rinky Hijikata | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roman Safiullin (rating 1495 vs 1540).
- Roman Safiullin dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 52.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Rinky Hijikata | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.1 | 12.5-9.8 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 25.8% | 52.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.8
Over 21.5: 56% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 44% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rinky Hijikata
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 26/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 24/08 | Darwin Blanch ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Roman Safiullin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Quentin Halys ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rinky Hijikata vs Roman Safiullin?
Our model gives 65% to Roman Safiullin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.