Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 07/10, 09:00
Prediction: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Marco Trungelliti · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Marco Trungelliti
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
26.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marco Trungelliti
3-7 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marco Trungelliti
1–0
Rei Sakamoto
(1 last)
- 30 Mar2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marco Trungelliti 1492 · Rei Sakamoto 1532
| Marco Trungelliti | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rei Sakamoto (rating 1492 vs 1532).
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 14 aces and 43.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Marco Trungelliti 1–0 Rei Sakamoto (1).
Statistics
| Marco Trungelliti | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.5 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-15.2 | 15-13.6 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 14 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.6
Over 22.5: 74% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 26% · 1.83
H2H · Marco Trungelliti 1 – 0 Rei Sakamoto (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marco Trungelliti 1–0 Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/26 ATP Marrakech | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marco Trungelliti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Martin Landaluce ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 19/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/09 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Sean Cuenin Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 12-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Juncheng Shang US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 20-25 | W |
| 16/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/10 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Vukic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 28/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Alexandre Muller US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Jay Clarke US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 61% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.