Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 06/10, 09:30
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexandre Muller
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Alexandre Muller
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Alexandre Muller
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
7-3 (W-L)
Alexandre Muller
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mattia Bellucci
2–0
Alexandre Muller
(2 last)
- 30 Sept2-0 12-3W
- 23 Sept2-1 17-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1592 · Alexandre Muller 1542
| Mattia Bellucci | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1592 vs 1542).
- Head-to-head: Mattia Bellucci 2–0 Alexandre Muller (2).
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-9.5 | 10.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.8% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 33% | 30.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 48% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 52% · 1.90
H2H · Mattia Bellucci 2 – 0 Alexandre Muller (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mattia Bellucci 2–0 Alexandre Muller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/26 Challenger Jingshan | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/09/24 ATP Tokyo | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Elias Ymer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 2-18 | L |
| 01/09 | Zsombor Piros US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
Alexandre Muller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Rio Noguchi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 30/09 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Moise Kouame ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Petr Bar Biryukov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Ziga Sesko Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Alexandre Muller?
Our model gives 66% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.