Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 06/10, 09:00
Prediction: Pavel Kotov vs Aleksandar Vukic
Team pages: Pavel Kotov · Aleksandar Vukic
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Kotov
Aleksandar Vukic
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Kotov
5-5 (W-L)
Aleksandar Vukic
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pavel Kotov
0–1
Aleksandar Vukic
(1 last)
- 22 Aug0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Kotov 1565 · Aleksandar Vukic 1529
| Pavel Kotov | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Pavel Kotov 0–1 Aleksandar Vukic (1).
Statistics
| Pavel Kotov | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.5 | 14.8-14.2 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 10.1 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 77.3% |
| Break % | 37.1% | 35.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.9
Over 23.5: 56% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 44% · 1.80
H2H · Pavel Kotov 0 – 1 Aleksandar Vukic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pavel Kotov 0–1 Aleksandar Vukic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/19 Challenger L'Aquila | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Martin Damm ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 23/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Luca Castelnuovo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 20/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
Aleksandar Vukic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Jie Cui ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/09 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Mark Lajal ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Darwin Blanch ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Tomas Barrios Vera ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Kotov vs Aleksandar Vukic?
Our model gives 53% to Pavel Kotov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.