Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 06/10, 07:10
Prediction: Kyrian Jacquet vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Kyrian Jacquet · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Kyrian Jacquet
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kyrian Jacquet
7-3 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kyrian Jacquet 1571 · Rei Sakamoto 1518
| Kyrian Jacquet | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kyrian Jacquet (rating 1571 vs 1518).
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 13.5 aces and 46.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Kyrian Jacquet | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.9 | 14.8-13.5 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 13.5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 78.8% | 78% |
| Break % | 29.4% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 49% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kyrian Jacquet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Tianhui Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Holger Rune ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/09 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 24/08 | Lautaro Midon US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Vukic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 28/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Alexandre Muller US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Jay Clarke US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kyrian Jacquet vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 55% to Kyrian Jacquet, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.