Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 06/10, 06:00
Prediction: Rigele Te vs Ilia Simakin
Team pages: Rigele Te · Ilia Simakin
Prediction summary
Winner
Rigele Te
Ilia Simakin
Estimated games
21.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rigele Te
5-5 (W-L)
Ilia Simakin
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rigele Te 1530 · Ilia Simakin 1680
| Rigele Te | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilia Simakin (rating 1530 vs 1680).
- Rigele Te dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 41.7% break avg.
- Ilia Simakin is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rigele Te | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 2-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.5 | 14-8.6 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 5 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 77% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 80% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 47% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rigele Te
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Adam Walton ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 28/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Bernard Tomic ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 18/09 | Casper Ruud Davis Cup |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 29/08 | Chase Ferguson M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/08 | Joshua Charlton M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/08 | Xirui Han M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Ammar Faleh Alhogbani M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/09 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rigele Te vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 77% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.