Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 06/10, 06:00
Prediction: Michael Zheng vs Nicolas Mejia
Team pages: Michael Zheng · Nicolas Mejia
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Zheng
Nicolas Mejia
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Zheng
5-5 (W-L)
Nicolas Mejia
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Michael Zheng
1–0
Nicolas Mejia
(1 last)
- 01 Jul3-1 25-18W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Zheng 1549 · Nicolas Mejia 1457
| Michael Zheng | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Michael Zheng (rating 1549 vs 1457).
- Michael Zheng dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 51.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Michael Zheng 1–0 Nicolas Mejia (1).
Statistics
| Michael Zheng | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-12.4 | 11.5-13.3 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 51.9% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.7
Over 20.5: 79% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 21% · 1.83
H2H · Michael Zheng 1 – 0 Nicolas Mejia (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Michael Zheng 1–0 Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/26 Wimbledon | 3-1 | 25-18 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Zheng
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/09 | Evan Zhu Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 05/09 | Arthur Gea US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 04/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-14 | W |
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Tallon Griekspoor Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Zheng vs Nicolas Mejia?
Our model gives 74% to Michael Zheng, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.