Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:30
Prediction: Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez
Team pages: Marcos Giron · Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Marcos Giron
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marcos Giron
4-6 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marcos Giron
0–3
Sebastian Baez
(3 last)
- 16 Jan0-2 5-12L
- 13 Aug1-2 17-18L
- 29 Apr1-2 13-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marcos Giron 1431 · Sebastian Baez 1501
| Marcos Giron | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Baez (rating 1431 vs 1501).
- Head-to-head: Marcos Giron 0–3 Sebastian Baez (3).
Statistics
| Marcos Giron | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.7 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-14.6 | 10.9-12.2 |
| Aces | 4 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 39.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.90
H2H · Marcos Giron 0 – 3 Sebastian Baez (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marcos Giron 0–3 Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/26 ATP Auckland | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 29/04/23 ATP Madrid | 1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marcos Giron
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 02/09 | Ignacio Buse US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 20-27 | L |
| 24/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Andre Ilagan ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Aryan Shah ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 56% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.