Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:30
Prediction: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Mariano Navone · Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Mariano Navone
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mariano Navone
3-7 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mariano Navone
1–0
Pablo Carreno Busta
(1 last)
- 28 May3-1 23-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariano Navone 1489 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1492
| Mariano Navone | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Mariano Navone 1–0 Pablo Carreno Busta (1).
Statistics
| Mariano Navone | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14.3 | 11.7-11.9 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.1
Over 22.5: 58% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 42% · 1.90
H2H · Mariano Navone 1 – 0 Pablo Carreno Busta (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mariano Navone 1–0 Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/24 French Open | 3-1 | 23-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariano Navone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Matteo Berrettini US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 31/08 | Novak Djokovic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-22 | W |
| 25/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yi Zhou ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 53% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.