Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:30
Prediction: Luca Van Assche vs Bu Yunchaokete
Team pages: Luca Van Assche · Bu Yunchaokete
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Van Assche
Bu Yunchaokete
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Van Assche
4-6 (W-L)
Bu Yunchaokete
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Van Assche 1525 · Bu Yunchaokete 1526
| Luca Van Assche | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Bu Yunchaokete dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 44.4% break avg.
- Note: Luca Van Assche makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Luca Van Assche | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-12.5 | 14.3-12.4 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 77% |
| Break % | 39% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Van Assche
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 30/08 | Cameron Norrie US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/08 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Bu Yunchaokete
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 24/09 | Michael Zheng ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 02/09 | Rafael Jodar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 28/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Borna Gojo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Rio Noguchi US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Van Assche vs Bu Yunchaokete?
Our model gives 59% to Bu Yunchaokete, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.