Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:30
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth
Team pages: Hubert Hurkacz · James Duckworth
Prediction summary
Winner
Hubert Hurkacz
James Duckworth
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hubert Hurkacz
5-5 (W-L)
James Duckworth
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hubert Hurkacz
2–0
James Duckworth
(2 last)
- 20 Jun2-0 13-10W
- 05 Nov2-1 19-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hubert Hurkacz 1592 · James Duckworth 1525
| Hubert Hurkacz | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1592 vs 1525).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 12.8 aces and 57.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Hubert Hurkacz 2–0 James Duckworth (2).
- Note: James Duckworth makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.2-13.2 | 13.9-12.2 |
| Aces | 12.8 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 77.7% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.6
Over 22.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 32% · 1.83
H2H · Hubert Hurkacz 2 – 0 James Duckworth (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubert Hurkacz 2–0 James Duckworth
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/24 ATP Halle | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/11/21 ATP Paris | 2-1 | 19-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Learner Tien ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 31/08 | Damir Dzumhur US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-12 | W |
James Duckworth
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 03/09 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Matteo Arnaldi US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 28/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 14/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth?
Our model gives 70% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.