Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:30
Prediction: Arthur Gea vs Jaime Faria
Team pages: Arthur Gea · Jaime Faria
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Gea
Jaime Faria
Estimated games
26.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Gea
7-3 (W-L)
Jaime Faria
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Gea 1571 · Jaime Faria 1513
| Arthur Gea | Jaime Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1571 vs 1513).
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 43.4% break avg.
- Jaime Faria dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 42.8% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (5.4/match).
- Note: Jaime Faria makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Gea | Jaime Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.3 | 1.4-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.4-14.8 | 13.6-15.7 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 43.4% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.1
Over 22.5: 76% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 24% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 30/09 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-19 | W |
| 28/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Jaime Faria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 28/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 24/09 | Terence Atmane ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-22 | L |
| 30/08 | Jenson Brooksby US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 20/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Gea vs Jaime Faria?
Our model gives 59% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.