Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:30
Prediction: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Team pages: Arthur Fery · Marin Cilic
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fery
Marin Cilic
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fery
4-6 (W-L)
Marin Cilic
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fery 1499 · Marin Cilic 1442
| Arthur Fery | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Fery (rating 1499 vs 1442).
Statistics
| Arthur Fery | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 0.9-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-12.6 | 10.8-14.7 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 53.6% | 31.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 51% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 49% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fery
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 19/09 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Lorenzo Musetti US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 29/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/08 | James Duckworth ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 10/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
Marin Cilic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 09/05 | Martin Landaluce ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic?
Our model gives 56% to Arthur Fery, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.