Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:30
Prediction: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Berrettini
Team pages: Aleksandar Kovacevic · Matteo Berrettini
Prediction summary
Winner
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Matteo Berrettini
Estimated games
27.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aleksandar Kovacevic
4-6 (W-L)
Matteo Berrettini
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Kovacevic 1485 · Matteo Berrettini 1497
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Aleksandar Kovacevic dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 43.4% break avg.
Statistics
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.7 | 17.4-17.9 |
| Aces | 9.8 | 13.6 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77.6% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 43.4% | 38.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.1 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +3.6
Over 23.5: 73% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 27% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Zachary Svajda ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 27/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Karen Khachanov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 02/07 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 30/06 | Stan Wawrinka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Berrettini?
Our model gives 61% to Matteo Berrettini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.