Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 06/10, 06:00
Prediction: Roman Safiullin vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Team pages: Roman Safiullin · Shintaro Mochizuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Roman Safiullin
Shintaro Mochizuki
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Roman Safiullin
4-6 (W-L)
Shintaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Safiullin 1517 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1497
| Roman Safiullin | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Roman Safiullin dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 50% break avg.
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Roman Safiullin | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.5 | 10.4-11.7 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 50% | 50.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +3.6
Over 18.5: 74% · 1.72
Under 18.5: 26% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Safiullin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Quentin Halys ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 21/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Safiullin vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 67% to Roman Safiullin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.