Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 06/10, 06:00
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Team pages: Liam Draxl · Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
7-3 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1520 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1547
| Liam Draxl | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 56.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.7 | 12.6-11 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 56.8% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -0.6
Over 23.5: 46% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 54% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/08 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Nicolas Mejia US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 26/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Hanlei Lu ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/08 | Seong Chan Hong US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 58% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.