Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 06/10, 06:00
Prediction: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Federico Cina
Team pages: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz · Federico Cina
Prediction summary
Winner
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Federico Cina
Estimated games
21Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
8-2 (W-L)
Federico Cina
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1595 · Federico Cina 1508
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1595 vs 1508).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-8.9 | 9.8-10.6 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 77% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 36.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -0.5
Over 21.5: 47% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 53% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 23/09 | Reiya Komagata M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Jorge Plans M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/09 | Nicolas Jadoun M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Edison Ambarzumjan M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniele Augenti M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Kyrian Jacquet US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 24/08 | Federico Agustin Gomez US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Federico Cina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Linang Xiao ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 02/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/09 | James McCabe Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Kaichi Uchida ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | James Trotter Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Federico Cina?
Our model gives 58% to Federico Cina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.