Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 09:00
Prediction: Alexander Shevchenko vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Team pages: Alexander Shevchenko · Yoshihito Nishioka
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Shevchenko
Yoshihito Nishioka
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Shevchenko
6-4 (W-L)
Yoshihito Nishioka
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Shevchenko
0–1
Yoshihito Nishioka
(1 last)
- 01 Oct0-2 3-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Shevchenko 1442 · Yoshihito Nishioka 1521
| Alexander Shevchenko | Yoshihito Nishioka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yoshihito Nishioka (rating 1442 vs 1521).
- Yoshihito Nishioka is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Shevchenko 0–1 Yoshihito Nishioka (1).
- Note: Alexander Shevchenko makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Shevchenko | Yoshihito Nishioka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.7 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-13.6 | 11.7-11.4 |
| Aces | 8 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74.9% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 23.6% | 58% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.5
Over 22.5: 54% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 46% · 1.83
H2H · Alexander Shevchenko 0 – 1 Yoshihito Nishioka (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Shevchenko 0–1 Yoshihito Nishioka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Shevchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Asian Games |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 29/09 | Abhishek Bastola Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 14/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 18/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Yoshihito Nishioka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/02 | Coleman Wong ATP Delray Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/02 | Jurij Rodionov Davis Cup |
1-2 | 8-17 | L |
| 12/01 | Nerman Fatic Australian Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/01 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Canberra · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 11/11 | Jason Jung Challenger Kobe · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 09/11 | James Duckworth Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/11 | James McCabe Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 07/11 | Akira Santillan Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 06/11 | Jason Jung Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Shevchenko vs Yoshihito Nishioka?
Our model gives 53% to Alexander Shevchenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.