Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 10:30
Prediction: Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate
Team pages: Dane Sweeny · Tristan Schoolkate
Prediction summary
Winner
Dane Sweeny
Tristan Schoolkate
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Dane Sweeny
4-6 (W-L)
Tristan Schoolkate
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Dane Sweeny
1–5
Tristan Schoolkate
(6 last)
- 08 Feb2-1 17-18W
- 25 Mar0-2 3-12L
- 02 Mar0-2 7-12L
- 15 Mar0-2 3-12L
- 01 Dec0-2 5-12L
- 24 Nov1-2 12-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dane Sweeny 1469 · Tristan Schoolkate 1514
| Dane Sweeny | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tristan Schoolkate (rating 1469 vs 1514).
- Tristan Schoolkate dominates on serve: 10.9 aces and 41.2% break avg.
- Tristan Schoolkate is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Dane Sweeny 1–5 Tristan Schoolkate (6).
Statistics
| Dane Sweeny | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.9 | 15.1-13.3 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 80.2% |
| Break % | 33.1% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.4
Over 23.5: 59% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 41% · 1.80
H2H · Dane Sweeny 1 – 5 Tristan Schoolkate (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dane Sweeny 1–5 Tristan Schoolkate
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Challenger Brisbane | 2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 25/03/22 ITF M25 Canberra | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/03/22 ITF M25 Bendigo | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/03/21 UTR Pro Tennis Series Canberra | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/12/20 UTR Pro Tennis Series Brisbane | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/11/20 UTR Pro Tennis Series Brisbane | 1-2 | 12-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dane Sweeny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Alex Bolt Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Lorenzo Musetti US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-11 | W |
| 18/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Tristan Schoolkate
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Harold Mayot Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Philip Henning Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 19/09 | Harold Mayot Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/09 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Marek Gengel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/09 | Flavio Cobolli US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
| 01/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 28/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate?
Our model gives 57% to Tristan Schoolkate, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.