Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 09:00
Prediction: Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov
Team pages: Martin Damm · Pavel Kotov
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Damm
Pavel Kotov
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Damm
7-3 (W-L)
Pavel Kotov
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Damm 1489 · Pavel Kotov 1563
| Martin Damm | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Kotov (rating 1489 vs 1563).
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 13 aces and 43.7% break avg.
- Pavel Kotov dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 43.8% break avg.
- Pavel Kotov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Martin Damm | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12.6 | 12.1-11.1 |
| Aces | 13 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Damm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 26/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 27/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Pavel Kotov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Luca Castelnuovo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 20/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov?
Our model gives 56% to Martin Damm, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.