Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 10:30
Prediction: Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris
Team pages: Alex Bolt · Lloyd Harris
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Bolt
Lloyd Harris
Estimated games
21.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Bolt
5-5 (W-L)
Lloyd Harris
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Bolt
1–0
Lloyd Harris
(1 last)
- 13 Oct2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Bolt 1537 · Lloyd Harris 1626
| Alex Bolt | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lloyd Harris (rating 1537 vs 1626).
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 11 aces and 48.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alex Bolt 1–0 Lloyd Harris (1).
Statistics
| Alex Bolt | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-10.7 | 12.7-9.4 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 11 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 81% |
| Break % | 29.9% | 48.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 49% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 51% · 1.90
H2H · Alex Bolt 1 – 0 Lloyd Harris (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Bolt 1–0 Lloyd Harris
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/18 Challenger Fairfield | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Bolt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Akira Santillan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Omar Jasika ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/07 | James McCabe ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Lloyd Harris
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 02/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/10 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris?
Our model gives 74% to Lloyd Harris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.