Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 07:30
Prediction: Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin
Team pages: Luka Pavlovic · Ilia Simakin
Prediction summary
Winner
Luka Pavlovic
Ilia Simakin
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luka Pavlovic
5-5 (W-L)
Ilia Simakin
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luka Pavlovic 1493 · Ilia Simakin 1671
| Luka Pavlovic | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 74% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilia Simakin (rating 1493 vs 1671).
- Ilia Simakin is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Luka Pavlovic | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 2-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-13.1 | 13.9-8.9 |
| Aces | 11.1 | – |
| Double faults | 4 | – |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | – |
| Break % | 34.5% | – |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.5
Over 22.5: 54% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 46% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Ha Minh Duc Vu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 70% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.