Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 10:30
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Elias Ymer
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Elias Ymer
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Elias Ymer
Estimated games
21.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
8-2 (W-L)
Elias Ymer
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mattia Bellucci
1–1
Elias Ymer
(2 last)
- 10 Aug2-0 14-10W
- 05 Oct1-2 15-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1554 · Elias Ymer 1469
| Mattia Bellucci | Elias Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1554 vs 1469).
- Elias Ymer dominates on serve: 8 aces and 40.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Elias Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.2 | 11.8-12.3 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 77.9% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 32.9% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.4
Over 20.5: 59% · 2.00
Under 20.5: 41% · 1.72
H2H · Mattia Bellucci 1 – 1 Elias Ymer (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mattia Bellucci 1–1 Elias Ymer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/24 Challenger Cary | 2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/10/23 Challenger Alicante | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 2-18 | L |
| 01/09 | Zsombor Piros US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Elias Ymer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Franco Roncadelli US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Paul Jubb Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Elias Ymer?
Our model gives 74% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.