Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 07:30
Prediction: Chun Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia
Team pages: Chun Hsin Tseng · Nicolas Mejia
Prediction summary
Winner
Chun Hsin Tseng
Nicolas Mejia
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Chun Hsin Tseng
8-2 (W-L)
Nicolas Mejia
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chun Hsin Tseng 1545 · Nicolas Mejia 1469
| Chun Hsin Tseng | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chun Hsin Tseng (rating 1545 vs 1469).
Statistics
| Chun Hsin Tseng | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-8.6 | 11.5-13.3 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.5
Over 22.5: 47% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 53% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chun Hsin Tseng
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Khumoyun Sultanov Asian Games |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Anvar Rakhmatov Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 20/09 | Olle Wallin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Karl Friberg Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 05/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Tianhui Zhang Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Tallon Griekspoor Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chun Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia?
Our model gives 64% to Chun Hsin Tseng, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.