Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 06:00
Prediction: Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl
Team pages: Hugo Gaston · Liam Draxl
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Gaston
Liam Draxl
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Gaston
5-5 (W-L)
Liam Draxl
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Gaston 1536 · Liam Draxl 1509
| Hugo Gaston | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 54.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Hugo Gaston | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-11.9 | 12.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 54.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/09 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Guido Ivan Justo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/08 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Nicolas Mejia US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 26/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl?
Our model gives 56% to Hugo Gaston, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.