Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 06:00
Prediction: Taro Daniel vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Team pages: Taro Daniel · Shintaro Mochizuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Taro Daniel
Shintaro Mochizuki
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taro Daniel
7-3 (W-L)
Shintaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taro Daniel 1508 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1466
| Taro Daniel | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taro Daniel (rating 1508 vs 1466).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Taro Daniel | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.7 | 10.4-12.4 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.7
Over 22.5: 45% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 55% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taro Daniel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 24/09 | Dane Sweeny ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Hayato Matsuoka ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/09 | Jake Delaney ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/09 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taro Daniel vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 58% to Taro Daniel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.