Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 10:30
Prediction: Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller
Team pages: Rio Noguchi · Alexandre Muller
Prediction summary
Winner
Rio Noguchi
Alexandre Muller
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rio Noguchi
5-5 (W-L)
Alexandre Muller
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rio Noguchi 1499 · Alexandre Muller 1520
| Rio Noguchi | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Rio Noguchi | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-11 | 10.2-9.4 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 1 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 27.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.3
Over 22.5: 41% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 59% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Masamichi Imamura ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Rigele Te Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Alexandre Muller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Moise Kouame ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Petr Bar Biryukov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Ziga Sesko Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Laslo Djere US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller?
Our model gives 60% to Alexandre Muller, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.