Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 05/10, 06:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Team pages: Lorenzo Sonego · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Sonego
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Sonego
6-4 (W-L)
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Sonego 1477 · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1595
| Lorenzo Sonego | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1477 vs 1595).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Sonego | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-13.5 | 11.5-8.5 |
| Aces | 8.9 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 76.3% |
| Break % | 38% | 35.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.5
Over 21.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 40% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/09 | James Duckworth ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 02/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 27/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Reiya Komagata M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Jorge Plans M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/09 | Nicolas Jadoun M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Edison Ambarzumjan M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniele Augenti M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Kyrian Jacquet US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 24/08 | Federico Agustin Gomez US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Astana · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Sonego vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz?
Our model gives 57% to Lorenzo Sonego, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.