Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 24/09, 10:00
Prediction: Marvin Moeller vs Federico Arnaboldi
Team pages: Marvin Moeller · Federico Arnaboldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Marvin Moeller
Federico Arnaboldi
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Marvin Moeller
6-4 (W-L)
Federico Arnaboldi
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marvin Moeller
1–1
Federico Arnaboldi
(2 last)
- 19 Feb2-0 13-8W
- 27 Jan0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marvin Moeller 1510 · Federico Arnaboldi 1478
| Marvin Moeller | Federico Arnaboldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Marvin Moeller | Federico Arnaboldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.3 | 9.9-11.8 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 69% |
| Break % | 31.1% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Marvin Moeller 1 – 1 Federico Arnaboldi (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marvin Moeller 1–1 Federico Arnaboldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/26 M25 Trento | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/01/26 Challenger Quimper | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marvin Moeller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 15/09 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Matias Soto Challenger Tulln · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 27/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Matias Soto Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/08 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/08 | Matej Dodig Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Federico Arnaboldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Florian Broska Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Maximilian Marterer Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 07/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 06/09 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Gabriele Crivellaro Challenger Todi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Sandro Kopp M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marvin Moeller vs Federico Arnaboldi?
Our model gives 62% to Marvin Moeller, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.