Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 21/09, 13:30
Prediction: Lorenzo Rottoli vs Stefano D'Agostino
Team pages: Lorenzo Rottoli · Stefano D'Agostino
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Rottoli
Stefano D'Agostino
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Rottoli
6-4 (W-L)
Stefano D'Agostino
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Rottoli 1499 · Stefano D'Agostino 1543
| Lorenzo Rottoli | Stefano D'Agostino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefano D'Agostino (rating 1499 vs 1543).
- Note: Stefano D'Agostino makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Rottoli | Stefano D'Agostino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.4 | 10.9-9.9 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 60.6% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 38.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Rottoli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Gabriele Maria Noce Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Garrett Johns M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Johan Nikles Challenger Como · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 30/08 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/08 | Andrej Martin M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Vienna |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Samuele Seghetti M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Alessandro Spadola M25 Lesa |
2-1 | 15-6 | W |
Stefano D'Agostino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Niccolo Ciavarella Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexandre Aubriot M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Richard Lacis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Marko Nikolic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Alvaro Peiro Serrano M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Manuel Mazza M25 Lesa |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 10/08 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Rottoli vs Stefano D'Agostino?
Our model gives 51% to Stefano D'Agostino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.