Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 22/09, 10:00
Prediction: Mika Petkovic vs Thiago Monteiro
Team pages: Mika Petkovic · Thiago Monteiro
Prediction summary
Winner
Mika Petkovic
Thiago Monteiro
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Mika Petkovic
2-8 (W-L)
Thiago Monteiro
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mika Petkovic
0–1
Thiago Monteiro
(1 last)
- 02 Sept1-2 9-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mika Petkovic 1467 · Thiago Monteiro 1554
| Mika Petkovic | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1467 vs 1554).
- Thiago Monteiro is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mika Petkovic 0–1 Thiago Monteiro (1).
Statistics
| Mika Petkovic | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-12.3 | 13.4-11.8 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 33.7% | 40.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
H2H · Mika Petkovic 0 – 1 Thiago Monteiro (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mika Petkovic 0–1 Thiago Monteiro
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/26 Challenger Porto | 1-2 | 9-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mika Petkovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Felix Gill Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 06/09 | Daniel Salazar Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Tiago Torres Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 23/08 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/08 | Tim Handel M25 Ueberlingen |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Carlos Giraldi M25 Ueberlingen |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/08 | Tim Heger M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Thiago Monteiro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/09 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/09 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 04/09 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mika Petkovic vs Thiago Monteiro?
Our model gives 68% to Thiago Monteiro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.