Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 22/09, 10:00
Prediction: Matthew William Donald vs Gianluca Cadenasso
Team pages: Matthew William Donald · Gianluca Cadenasso
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew William Donald
Gianluca Cadenasso
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew William Donald
6-4 (W-L)
Gianluca Cadenasso
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew William Donald 1494 · Gianluca Cadenasso 1476
| Matthew William Donald | Gianluca Cadenasso | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Gianluca Cadenasso dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 44.5% break avg.
- Note: Matthew William Donald makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Matthew William Donald | Gianluca Cadenasso | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.2 | 10.6-12 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 61.7% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 44.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew William Donald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Giovanni Oradini Challenger Biella · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 07/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Jelle Sels Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 17/08 | Nerman Fatic Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 16/08 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 15/08 | Louis Wessels M25 Muttenz |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Muttenz |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko M25 Muttenz |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Gianluca Cadenasso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Federico Cina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Leandro Riedi French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 19/05 | Liam Broady French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 02/05 | Matteo Arnaldi Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
1-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/05 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/04 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/04 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/04 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew William Donald vs Gianluca Cadenasso?
Our model gives 54% to Gianluca Cadenasso, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.