Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 20/09, 15:00
Prediction: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Lorenzo Rottoli
Team pages: Gabriele Maria Noce · Lorenzo Rottoli
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Maria Noce
Lorenzo Rottoli
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Maria Noce
5-5 (W-L)
Lorenzo Rottoli
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Maria Noce 1516 · Lorenzo Rottoli 1475
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Lorenzo Rottoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriele Maria Noce (rating 1516 vs 1475).
Statistics
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Lorenzo Rottoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.7 | 10.7-11 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 62.3% | 61.1% |
| Break % | 42.2% | 43.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Maria Noce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Garrett Johns M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 11/09 | John Sperle M15 Budapest |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/09 | Heorhii Shylov M15 Budapest |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/09 | Pietro Marino M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Manuel Mazza M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Alessandro Battiston M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Mirko Lagasio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | David Wallechner M15 Mistelbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Lorenzo Rottoli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Garrett Johns M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Johan Nikles Challenger Como · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 30/08 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/08 | Andrej Martin M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Vienna |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Samuele Seghetti M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Alessandro Spadola M25 Lesa |
2-1 | 15-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Fano |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Maria Noce vs Lorenzo Rottoli?
Our model gives 56% to Lorenzo Rottoli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.