Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 20/09, 15:00
Prediction: Niccolo Ciavarella vs Stefano D'Agostino
Team pages: Niccolo Ciavarella · Stefano D'Agostino
Prediction summary
Winner
Niccolo Ciavarella
Stefano D'Agostino
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Niccolo Ciavarella
3-7 (W-L)
Stefano D'Agostino
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Ciavarella 1397 · Stefano D'Agostino 1515
| Niccolo Ciavarella | Stefano D'Agostino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefano D'Agostino (rating 1397 vs 1515).
- Stefano D'Agostino is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Stefano D'Agostino makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Niccolo Ciavarella | Stefano D'Agostino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (6) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.8 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-12.2 | 10.6-10.7 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 2 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 55.9% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 64.4% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Ciavarella
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Federico Arnaboldi M25 Fano |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Adrian Andreev M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Raffaele Ciurnelli M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Maximilian Homberg M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Matteo Sciahbasi M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Stefano D'Agostino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexandre Aubriot M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Richard Lacis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Marko Nikolic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Alvaro Peiro Serrano M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Manuel Mazza M25 Lesa |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 10/08 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Fano |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Ciavarella vs Stefano D'Agostino?
Our model gives 72% to Stefano D'Agostino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.