Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 14/09, 11:00
Prediction: Nicolas Parizzia vs Gabriele Pennaforti
Team pages: Nicolas Parizzia · Gabriele Pennaforti
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Parizzia
Gabriele Pennaforti
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Parizzia
4-6 (W-L)
Gabriele Pennaforti
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Parizzia
1–1
Gabriele Pennaforti
(2 last)
- 17 Jul0-2 8-12L
- 06 Feb2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Parizzia 1491 · Gabriele Pennaforti 1450
| Nicolas Parizzia | Gabriele Pennaforti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Parizzia (rating 1491 vs 1450).
- Note: Gabriele Pennaforti makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Nicolas Parizzia | Gabriele Pennaforti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 0.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-9.5 | 7.7-9.9 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.9% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 34.8% | 48.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
H2H · Nicolas Parizzia 1 – 1 Gabriele Pennaforti (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Parizzia 1–1 Gabriele Pennaforti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/25 M15 Gubbio | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/02/22 M15 Antalya | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Parizzia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Rafael Kis Balazs M15 Budapest |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Theo Papamalamis Challenger Sion · Clay |
1-2 | 18-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Muttenz |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Tymur Bieldiugin M25 Muttenz |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/08 | Justin Lenders M25 Muttenz |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano M15 Segrate |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand M15 Segrate |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 24/07 | Adrian Andreev M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Vito Dell'Elba M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Gabriele Pennaforti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 12/08 | George Lazarov M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Peter Buldorini M25 Fano |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Pietro Marino M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | David Eichenseher M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Sean Cuenin Challenger Kigali · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/03 | Alec Beckley Challenger Kigali Qual · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Parizzia vs Gabriele Pennaforti?
Our model gives 55% to Nicolas Parizzia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.