Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 24/09, 11:00
Prediction: Daniel Michalski vs Lorenzo Carboni
Team pages: Daniel Michalski · Lorenzo Carboni
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Michalski
Lorenzo Carboni
Estimated games
19.6
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Michalski
9-1 (W-L)
Lorenzo Carboni
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Michalski
2–0
Lorenzo Carboni
(2 last)
- 11 Aug2-0 12-3W
- 19 Sept2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Michalski 1584 · Lorenzo Carboni 1521
| Daniel Michalski | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Michalski (rating 1584 vs 1521).
- Daniel Michalski is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniel Michalski 2–0 Lorenzo Carboni (2).
Statistics
| Daniel Michalski | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.2 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-6.6 | 9.6-8.3 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 60.6% |
| Break % | 57.4% | 61.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.6
H2H · Daniel Michalski 2 – 0 Lorenzo Carboni (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Michalski 2–0 Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/26 Challenger Todi | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/09/24 M25 Santa Margherita | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Michalski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Lorenzo Beraldo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Michael Savano M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/08 | Nikita Mashtakov M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/08 | Matyas Cerny M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Jan Wygona M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/08 | Franco Ribero M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/08 | Michael Agwi M15 Krakow |
2-0 | 9-2 | W |
| 22/08 | Jan Sadzik M15 Krakow |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Gabriele Pennaforti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Noah Karma M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Nicolas Ulrich M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/08 | Arthur Bellegy M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Maximilian Homberg Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Michalski vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Our model gives 66% to Daniel Michalski, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.