Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 14/09, 09:30
Prediction: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Mattias Pisanu
Team pages: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini · Mattias Pisanu
Prediction summary
Winner
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Mattias Pisanu
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
5-5 (W-L)
Mattias Pisanu
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 1549 · Mattias Pisanu 1464
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Mattias Pisanu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (rating 1549 vs 1464).
- Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini makes many double faults (8.1/match).
- Note: Mattias Pisanu makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Mattias Pisanu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 0.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-9.9 | 6.9-10.5 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 8.1 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 53.8% |
| Break % | 47% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Kirill Kivattsev M15 Budapest |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Marko Retelj M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Lorenzo Berto M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Luca Castagnola M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Lorenzo Beraldo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Gabriele Mellerio M25 Lesa |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Mattias Pisanu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Andrea De Marchi M25 Maribor |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Yanis Peterhans M25 Maribor |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Jonas Gundacker M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Maj Premzl M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/04 | Oliwier Sterniczuk M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/10 | Ivan Gakhov M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Alex Lapsansky M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 17/09 | Pol Martin Tiffon M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Mattias Pisanu?
Our model gives 77% to Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.