Tennis · US Open · 13/09, 20:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Ben Shelton
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Ben Shelton
Estimated games
28.6Bet365 line 43.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
9-1 (W-L)
Ben Shelton
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
5–0
Ben Shelton
(5 last)
- 09 Nov2-0 13-9W
- 16 Aug2-0 12-4W
- 14 Jun2-0 14-12W
- 20 Apr2-0 12-6W
- 17 Aug2-1 17-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1611 · Ben Shelton 1612
| Alexander Zverev | Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 46.2% break avg.
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 48.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 5–0 Ben Shelton (5).
- Note: Alexander Zverev makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.4-0.9 | 2.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 19.2-15.4 | 18.2-13.5 |
| Aces | 13.2 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 78.9% | 78.4% |
| Break % | 46.2% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.6 · Bet365 line 43.5 · -14.9
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Alexander Zverev 5 – 0 Ben Shelton (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 5–0 Ben Shelton
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 ATP Finals | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/08/25 ATP Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06/25 ATP Stuttgart | 2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 20/04/25 ATP Munich | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 2-1 | 17-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 10/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Alejandro Tabilo US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 04/09 | Quentin Halys US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-26 | W |
| 02/09 | Lorenzo Sonego US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-26 | W |
| 19/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 07/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 02/09 | Hubert Hurkacz US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 01/09 | Tallon Griekspoor US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton?
Our model gives 54% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.