Prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Team pages: Frances Tiafoe · Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Frances Tiafoe
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 40.5
Recent form · 10 last
Frances Tiafoe
9-1 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Frances Tiafoe
2–0
Alex Michelsen
(2 last)
- 05 Apr2-0 13-6W
- 09 Feb2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Frances Tiafoe 1623 · Alex Michelsen 1577
| Frances Tiafoe | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1623 vs 1577).
- Head-to-head: Frances Tiafoe 2–0 Alex Michelsen (2).
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Frances Tiafoe | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.3-0.5 | 2-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-12.3 | 14.5-11.2 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 76.3% | 76% |
| Break % | 52.3% | 48.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -15.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Frances Tiafoe 2 – 0 Alex Michelsen (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Frances Tiafoe 2–0 Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/25 ATP Houston | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/02/24 ATP Dallas | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 58% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.