Tennis · US Open · 11/09, 21:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
29.8Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
9-1 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
5–3
Karen Khachanov
(8 last)
- 07 Aug1-2 15-17L
- 15 Aug2-0 12-5W
- 27 Mar2-0 12-5W
- 01 Aug2-0 12-4W
- 09 Aug0-2 6-12L
- 02 Nov0-2 3-12L
- 03 Jun3-2 25-24W
- 19 Sept2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1581 · Karen Khachanov 1533
| Alexander Zverev | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1581 vs 1533).
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 9.4 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 5–3 Karen Khachanov (8).
- Note: Alexander Zverev makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1.2 | 2.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 19.2-16.4 | 18.5-14.5 |
| Aces | 13.4 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 75.7% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.8 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -8.7
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Alexander Zverev 5 – 3 Karen Khachanov (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 5–3 Karen Khachanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/25 ATP Toronto | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/03/24 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08/21 Olympics 2020 - Men | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/08/19 ATP Montreal | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/11/18 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/06/18 French Open | 3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 19/09/16 ATP St Petersburg | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Alejandro Tabilo US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 04/09 | Quentin Halys US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-26 | W |
| 02/09 | Lorenzo Sonego US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-26 | W |
| 19/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 06/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 02/07 | Yannick Hanfmann Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 69% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.