Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Luciano Darderi
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Luciano Darderi
Estimated games
28Bet365 line 31.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
9-1 (W-L)
Luciano Darderi
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
1–1
Luciano Darderi
(2 last)
- 12 May1-2 12-14L
- 12 May2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1559 · Luciano Darderi 1551
| Alexander Zverev | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 13.6 aces and 42.1% break avg.
- Note: Alexander Zverev makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Luciano Darderi makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1.2 | 1.6-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 19.1-16.8 | 14.2-13.5 |
| Aces | 13.6 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 66% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 29.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28 · Bet365 line 31.5 · -3.5
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Alexander Zverev 1 – 1 Luciano Darderi (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 1–1 Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 ATP Rome | 1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 12/05/24 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Alejandro Tabilo US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 04/09 | Quentin Halys US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-26 | W |
| 02/09 | Lorenzo Sonego US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-26 | W |
| 19/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 10/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi?
Our model gives 71% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.