Prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
Team pages: Frances Tiafoe · Ben Shelton
Prediction summary
Winner
Frances Tiafoe
Ben Shelton
Estimated games
27.5Bet365 line 39.5
Recent form · 10 last
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Ben Shelton
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Frances Tiafoe
1–3
Ben Shelton
(4 last)
- 26 Jul0-2 10-13L
- 30 Aug3-2 29-25W
- 07 Apr1-2 14-17L
- 06 Sept1-3 16-22L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Frances Tiafoe 1618 · Ben Shelton 1619
| Frances Tiafoe | Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 50.3% break avg.
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 48.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Frances Tiafoe 1–3 Ben Shelton (4).
Statistics
| Frances Tiafoe | Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.4-0.7 | 2.3-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.5-14.3 | 17.2-12.7 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 78.5% |
| Break % | 50.3% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.5 · Bet365 line 39.5 · -12
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Frances Tiafoe 1 – 3 Ben Shelton (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Frances Tiafoe 1–3 Ben Shelton
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/25 ATP Washington | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/08/24 US Open | 3-2 | 29-25 | W |
| 07/04/24 ATP Houston | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/09/23 US Open | 1-3 | 16-22 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 06/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 07/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 02/09 | Hubert Hurkacz US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 01/09 | Tallon Griekspoor US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton?
Our model gives 62% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.