Prediction: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien
Team pages: Karen Khachanov · Learner Tien
Prediction summary
Winner
Karen Khachanov
Learner Tien
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 40.5
Recent form · 10 last
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Learner Tien
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karen Khachanov 1524 · Learner Tien 1592
| Karen Khachanov | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Learner Tien (rating 1524 vs 1592).
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 40.4% break avg.
- Learner Tien is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Karen Khachanov | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.3 | 2-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 17-13.5 | 14.1-10.7 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 40.4% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -15.1
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karen Khachanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 06/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 02/07 | Yannick Hanfmann Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
Learner Tien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Gael Monfils US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Nuno Borges US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien?
Our model gives 60% to Learner Tien, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.