Tennis · US Open Women · 12/09, 22:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
8-2 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
6–4
Elena Rybakina
(10 last)
- 27 Mar2-0 12-7W
- 15 Mar2-1 16-15W
- 31 Jan1-2 14-16L
- 08 Nov0-2 9-13L
- 10 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 15 Aug0-2 5-12L
- 20 Jun2-1 17-18W
- 19 Dec1-0 7-6W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1606 · Elena Rybakina 1631
| Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 50.3% break avg.
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 43.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 6–4 Elena Rybakina (10).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-8.9 | 12.1-8.7 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 78.1% |
| Break % | 50.3% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.4
Over 23.5: 40% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 60% · 1.80
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 6 – 4 Elena Rybakina (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 6–4 Elena Rybakina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 WTA Miami | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/03/26 WTA Indian Wells | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 31/01/26 Australian Open Women | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 08/11/25 WTA Finals | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/08/25 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/06/25 WTA Berlin | 2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 19/12/24 World Tennis League | 1-0 | 7-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 53% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.