Tennis · US Open Women · 11/09, 02:30
Prediction: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Coco Gauff · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Coco Gauff
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
20.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Coco Gauff
9-1 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Coco Gauff
0–1
Elena Rybakina
(1 last)
- 13 Aug1-2 11-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coco Gauff 1636 · Elena Rybakina 1619
| Coco Gauff | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 40.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Coco Gauff 0–1 Elena Rybakina (1).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Coco Gauff | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.1 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-7 | 12.3-8.4 |
| Aces | 3 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 54.8% | 40.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.9
Over 22.5: 37% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 63% · 1.83
H2H · Coco Gauff 0 – 1 Elena Rybakina (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coco Gauff 0–1 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/26 WTA Toronto | 1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Mirra Andreeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/09 | Iva Jovic US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Cristina Bucsa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Zeynep Sonmez US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Ann Li WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 50% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.