Tennis · US Open Women · 10/09, 17:00

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula

Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Jessica Pegula

Prediction summary

Winner

52% 48%

Aryna Sabalenka Jessica Pegula

Estimated games

22.9Bet365 line 21.5

Recent form · 10 last

Aryna Sabalenka 8-2 (W-L)

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Jessica Pegula 7-3 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka 7–3 Jessica Pegula (10 last)

20 Jun1-2 11-18L
04 Nov2-1 14-13W
11 Oct1-2 16-15L
05 Sept2-1 16-13W
29 Mar2-0 13-7W
07 Sept2-0 14-10W
19 Aug2-0 13-8W
31 Oct0-2 7-12L

Showing the 8 with a final score we have.

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1592 · Jessica Pegula 1630

	Aryna Sabalenka	Jessica Pegula
Our model	45%	55%
Market	59%	41%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 54.1% break avg.
Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 7–3 Jessica Pegula (10).

Statistics

	Aryna Sabalenka	Jessica Pegula
Win %	80%	90%
Win % · Hard	80% (10)	90% (10)
Sets (G-P)	1.7-0.5	1.8-0.7
Games (G-P)	12.8-8.9	13.2-10.5
Aces	6.1	4
Double faults	3.1	2.8
1st serve %	70.7%	69.5%
Break %	54.1%	54%

Estimated total games (ours) 22.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.4

Over 21.5: 60% · 1.80 Under 21.5: 40% · 1.90

H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 7 – 3 Jessica Pegula (10)

Odds Bet365

11.61

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.83

2 (+2.5)1.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.4%

Time*	1	2
05:57 +40’	1.61	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 7–3 Jessica Pegula

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
20/06/26 WTA Berlin	1-2	11-18	L
04/11/25 WTA Finals	2-1	14-13	W
11/10/25 WTA Wuhan	1-2	16-15	L
05/09/25 US Open Women	2-1	16-13	W
29/03/25 WTA Miami	2-0	13-7	W
07/09/24 US Open Women	2-0	14-10	W
19/08/24 WTA Cincinnati	2-0	13-8	W
31/10/23 WTA Finals	0-2	7-12	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aryna Sabalenka

WWWWW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
08/09	Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard	2-1	17-18	W
06/09	Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard	2-0	12-7	W
04/09	Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard	2-0	12-7	W
03/09	Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard	2-0	12-2	W
31/08	Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard	2-0	12-6	W
20/08	Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard	0-2	10-13	L
19/08	Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	12-4	W
16/08	Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	13-8	W
09/08	Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard	1-2	16-17	L
07/08	Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard	2-0	12-7	W

Jessica Pegula

WWWWW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
09/09	Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard	2-1	15-13	W
07/09	Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard	2-0	12-7	W
04/09	Leylah Annie Fernandez US Open Women · Hard	2-1	13-13	W
02/09	Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard	2-0	12-4	W
30/08	Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard	2-0	12-5	W
24/08	Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard	0-2	6-12	L
22/08	Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-1	17-15	W
20/08	Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-1	15-16	W
19/08	Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-1	17-13	W
18/08	Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	13-7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula?

Our model gives 52% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.