Tennis · US Open Women · 08/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Emma Navarro
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Emma Navarro
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
8-2 (W-L)
Emma Navarro
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
4–0
Emma Navarro
(4 last)
- 18 Aug2-0 13-7W
- 03 Oct2-1 18-10W
- 26 Jun2-1 13-13W
- 26 Mar2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1632 · Emma Navarro 1543
| Jessica Pegula | Emma Navarro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1632 vs 1543).
- Emma Navarro dominates on serve: 7 aces and 41% break avg.
- Jessica Pegula is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 4–0 Emma Navarro (4).
- Note: Emma Navarro makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Emma Navarro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-9.7 | 11.9-11.5 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 55.3% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.1
Over 20.5: 65% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 35% · 1.83
H2H · Jessica Pegula 4 – 0 Emma Navarro (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 4–0 Emma Navarro
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/26 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/10/25 WTA Beijing | 2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 26/06/25 WTA Bad Homburg | 2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 26/03/24 WTA Miami | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Simona Waltert WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Emma Navarro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Anna Kalinskaya US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Karolina Muchova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Caty McNally US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Lois Boisson US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 27/07 | Sofia Kenin WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 04/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro?
Our model gives 72% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.