Tennis · US Open Women · 09/09, 17:00
Prediction: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Qinwen Zheng · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Qinwen Zheng
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Qinwen Zheng
6-4 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Qinwen Zheng
1–4
Elena Rybakina
(5 last)
- 26 Apr1-2 13-16L
- 11 Feb1-2 13-17L
- 04 Nov2-1 16-13W
- 02 Oct0-2 3-12L
- 02 Jul0-2 11-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Qinwen Zheng 1575 · Elena Rybakina 1628
| Qinwen Zheng | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1575 vs 1628).
- Qinwen Zheng dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 41.4% break avg.
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 43.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Qinwen Zheng 1–4 Elena Rybakina (5).
- Note: Qinwen Zheng makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Qinwen Zheng | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.7 | 12.5-8.9 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.1% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 50% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 50% · 1.80
H2H · Qinwen Zheng 1 – 4 Elena Rybakina (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Qinwen Zheng 1–4 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 WTA Madrid | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 11/02/26 WTA Doha | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/11/24 WTA Finals | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 02/10/23 WTA Beijing | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/07/22 Wimbledon Women | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Qinwen Zheng
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Iga Swiatek US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/09 | Madison Keys US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 03/09 | Yulia Putintseva US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Kristina Liutova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 28/08 | Elena Pridankina US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Clara Burel US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/08 | Xiaodi You US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 65% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.